Trusting Your Gut - The numbers say one thing but your gut says another

We’ve never had more data at our fingertips.

Pricing models are more sophisticated. Exposure reports can drill down to the square metre. Dashboards track trends across portfolios in real time.

And yet, some of the best underwriting decisions I’ve seen were made by someone saying - "Something doesn’t feel right about this one."

Data doesn’t replace judgment. It supports it.

I’ve worked across broking and underwriting teams, from the UK to the Pacific Islands, and if there’s one lesson that’s consistent, it’s this:

Your model might be technically sound but it doesn’t know the market like you.

It doesn’t know:

• That the broker has been quietly shopping that client for months.

• That a flood map isn’t worth much when the drain infrastructure hasn’t been maintained in five years.

• That an industry trend is shifting faster than the claims data reflects.

These are the things experienced underwriters and portfolio managers feel before the data catches up.

So what do you do when instinct and analytics don’t align?

Here’s what I recommend (and practice).

1. Pause before dismissing either

Gut feelings aren’t irrational—they’re often pattern recognition from years of experience. But models are valuable too. If they don’t agree, you’ve got a signal worth digging into.

2. Make the conflict visible

If the model says 'Rate Adequate' but your team says 'Too risky' - document that. Create space in your framework for qualitative overrides and use them to learn over time.

3. Use experience to ask better questions

Good underwriters don’t guess, they probe. Why is this premium so low? Why does this region suddenly look more profitable? Is this shift real or temporary?

4. Don’t let models silence your team

I’ve seen portfolios skew because junior underwriters were trained to 'trust the model.' Teach your team that speaking up is okay, especially when the risk doesn’t match the recommendation.

5. Stay curious

Instinct isn’t infallible. Neither is data. The goal is to build a decision making culture where challenge is welcome and learning is constant.

At the end of the day, the job isn’t to follow a model. It’s to build a sustainable, profitable portfolio.

And sometimes, the best move is the one the spreadsheet didn’t predict but your experience did.

If your underwriting or portfolio team is grappling with decisions that don’t 'feel right', I’d be happy to talk. Sometimes what you need isn’t another model - it’s a sounding board.