Experience versus Spreadsheets - What real world experience teaches you

Spreadsheets are neat. Underwriting isn’t.

You can model loss cost, apply hazard weights, segment by trade and create beautiful pricing matrices. And you should.

But here’s what 30 years in the industry has taught me:

Risk doesn’t behave precisely how you price it.

Experience teaches you what spreadsheets can’t

A portfolio can be rate adequate but still unprofitable because of silent accumulation
A risk can look like a safe bet but your gut says 'we’ve seen this before'
The numbers can greenlight a trade class but your claims history tells a different story
A single broker can unintentionally reshape your risk profile faster than any pricing adjustment can catch up

These aren’t theoretical risks. They’re what actually erodes underwriting performance over time.

You need models. You need frameworks.

But you also need people who know how to interpret them, when to override them and how to spot patterns before the data confirms them.

Calling out appetite drift before it shows up in the loss ratio
Asking 'Why are we suddenly writing this?' not just 'What’s the rate?'
Understanding that risk isn’t just in the policy, it’s in the way the portfolio is built
Helping underwriters navigate ambiguity, escalation and referral judgment - not just data points

At Storm Strategy, we help insurers combine data with discernment so that underwriting decisions are grounded, not just modelled.

If your team has the tools but wants the context to use them better, let’s talk.